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2009 MLB MGRs of the Year: Tracy & Scioscia

Padres Rockies Hurdle Fired Baseball Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle in Colorado, guiding a struggling Rockies team to a 74-42 finish, and a postseason berth. It’s hard to argue with the selection of Tracy as the NL Manager of the Year. Twice before teams he’s managed have finished with 90+ wins (2004 Dodgers finished 1st), while three times his teams finished with 90+ losses (2007 Pirates finished 6th). So it just goes to show, being a successful manager has alot to do with being in the right place at the right time, and having the horses.

Mike Scioscia won the AL Manager of the Year Award. It was the 2nd time he’s won the award, the first coming in 2002, when his Angels won the World Series. Scioscia has averaged 90 wins per season in his ten years as the Angels skipper, and has finished in 1st place five of the last six years. The Angels have built a winning baseball philosophy around their manager’s belief in fundamentals, speed, & defense.

2009 MLB Rookies of the Year

roy625nov162009 Back in the middle of September I was assigned the task of predicting who would win the rookie of the year awards. Now two months later the winners were announced, Oakland A’s reliever Andrew Bailey in the American League and Florida Marlins outfielder Chris Coghlan. I had predicted Rockies outfielder Dexter Fowler in the NL and Rangers SS Elvis Andrus in the AL.

In 2008 the A’s converted Bailey from a starter to a reliever in AA Ball in 2008. Andrew immediately experienced success in the bullpen, carrying that success over into the 2008 Arizona Fall League, and on into the 2009 regular big league season. He finished the season with 26 of 30 saves, a 6-3 record, a 1.84 ERA, with 91 strikeouts & 49 hits allowed in 83′ innings, and was Oakland’s lone All Star representative.

Chris Coghlan also enjoyed a conversion that enabled him to star in the big leagues, the former infielder was moved to leftfield. He brought his bat out to the outfield with him, batting .321 with a .390 OBP, with 31 doubles, 6 triples, & 9 home runs, as the Marlins leadoff hitter.

Elvis Andrus, my choice for AL Rookie of the Year, the Rangers 21 year old shortstop out of Venezuela, finished 2nd in the balloting behind Bailey. Elvis batted .267, with 33 stolen bases, 72 runs scored, & 128 base hits, with a very impressive range factor in the field of 4.86. Right on the heels of Andrus was Detroit’s 20 year old righthanded starting pitcher Rick Porcello (14-9 & 3.96 ERA). The 6’9″ Tampa Bay’s righthander, Jeff Niemann (13-6 & 3.94) was next, he was 17-0 with a 1.70 ERA as a Junior in 2003 with Rice. Then came The Sporting News choice for Rookie of the Year, the White Sox very own, thirdbaseman Gordon Beckham (.270, 28 doubles, 14 homers, 63 RBIs). Rounding out this crop of AL rookies was another pitcher from Oakland, southpaw Brett Anderson (11-11, 4.06 ERA, & 150 strikeouts in 175′ IP).

Closely behind Coghlan, over in the Senior Circuit, was The Sporting News choice for NL Rookie of the Year out of the University of Northwestern in Evanston, IL, Philadelphia’s lefthander J.A. Happ (12-4 & 2.93). A distant 3rd was Atlanta’s phenom righthanded starting pitcher Tommy Hanson (11-4, 2.89, & 116 K’s in 127″ IP). The Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen wasn’t far in back of Hanson, batting .286, 26 doubles, 9 triples, 12 homers, 74 runs scored, to go along with 22 steals, while playing a very good centerfield for the Buccos. Next up the Brewers thirdbaseman Casey McGehee received some love, .301, 20 doubles, 16 homers, & 66 RBIs. Interestingly six other rookies received very little support in their quest for league’s top rookie honors. They were Randy Wells of the Cubs (12-10 & 3.05), Pittsburgh slugger Garrett Jones (21 HRs & .293), Padres SS Everth Cabrera (25 SBs & 59 runs), my choice Dexter Fowler Colorado outfielder (73 runs, 27 SBs, 29 2Bs, & 10 3Bs), Diamondbacks outfielder Gerardo Parra (.290, 21 2Bs, 8 3Bs, 60 RBIs), and last, but not least, Cardinals centerfielder Colby Rasmus (22 2Bs & 16 HRs).

2009 Managers of the Year: Mike Scioscia & Jim Tracy

scoscia The Sporting News has announced the winners of the Manager of the Year award as Mike Scioscia of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Colorado Rockies Jim Tracy.

This was the 10th year Mike Scioscia has been the Angels skipper, averaging exactly 90 wins per year. He is a two time Manager of the Year award winner, winning the award in 2002, when his ballclub won the World Series. Although LAA won three less games (97) than the previous year (100, his only 100 win season), Scioscia had one of his best seasons at the helm. Early in the year an up & coming rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart was tragically killed in an automobile accident, Scioscia’s steadying influence kept the Angels focused. But the biggest thing Mike brings to the table as manager is “Angels baseball”, it starts in the minors, and everybody in the organization knows what’s expected of them. If somebody doesn’t do their job, they’re are pulled out of the ballgame, and reminded of what’s expected. It’s a throwback brand of ball, where the little things are expected, little things produce big results.

Jim Tracy took over from Clint Hurdle as the Rockies manager on May 29th. In only 116 games at the helm, he turned Colorado around, with a 74-42 record, winning a wild card playoff berth. Under Tracy the team lost their first three games in Houston, and he came in that next day and said, “Guys, I want to just let you guys play the game. But if you all force me to come out here, I’m going to come out here”. Jim Tracy has experienced success before as a big league skipper, in 2004 he guided the Los Angeles Dodgers to a first place finish with 93 victories.

Both Scioscia & Tracy are the one and only winners of the Manager of the Year award in their ballclubs history.

Guest Blogger: Baseball Musings’ David Pinto predicts the National League postseason

Each day this week, The Baseball Zealot has been featuring special guest bloggers who have been giving their predictions on the 2009 MLB end-of year-awards and postseason matchups. To wrap up the series, we are fortunate to have David Pinto bring out his crystal ball and post his thoughts on how the National League postseason is shaping up.

David Pinto, for those who few baseball fans who haven’t heard of him, is the god-blogger of baseball updates. For 10 years, Pinto served as chief researcher for ESPN’s Baseball Tonight. Now, he spends his time editing his very popular Baseball Musings blog. Baseball Musings was one of the very first baseball blogs I followed on a regular basis (and still do to this day).

You’ll also find Pinto’s analysis in his Sporting News weekly column.

NL Predictions

The National League playoff picture looks set. The Cardinals hold a huge lead in the NL Central. The Phillies lead the Marlins and Braves by a healthy amount, but as the last two years taught us, there is no such thing as a safe lead in the NL East. While the Dodgers are looking stronger for an NL West win, and the Rockies built a big enough lead in the Wild Card race that they probably make the playoffs.

The seeding then becomes important in determining which team eventually wins the NL pennant. Right now, the Dodgers own the best record in the National League. Their remaining schedule points to the team staying at the top of the league. Los Angeles plays teams still competing for the playoffs six times, while the rest of their games are against the weakest teams in the league, including the Pirates and the Nationals.

The Cardinals and Phillies are very close (the Phillies hold the tie breaker). The Cardinals schedule is a little easier than the Phillies, as they play the Marlins and Braves, who are still trying to chase them down. It looks to me like the Cardinals should sneak by the Phillies for the second seed in the NL playoffs. That would give us the Dodgers hosting the Phillies, since they can’t play a wild card from their own division, and the Cardinals hosting the Rockies.

Rockies vs. Cardinals

This really looks like a pitching series. The Rockies lead the majors in quality starts, but the Cardinals on average produce better results from their starters. That’s due to a quality of the St. Louis staff versus the quantity of the Rockies starters. With Carpenter and Wainwright, the Cardinals throw two pitchers who rank in the top five in the National League. Joel Pineiro comes in as one of the better third starters in the league. There’s a fall off in pitching after that.

The Rockies have a fine ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, but their 2-5 starters are interchangeable. Unless there are injuries, however, starting pitching depth doesn’t count for much in the playoffs, especially with two off days in the series allowing the possibility of using just three starters. The edge in pitching goes to the Cardinals.

The quality versus quantity argument shifts when examining the offense. Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday both hit better than anyone on the Rockies. There is a fairly wide gap between those two and the rest of the hitters on the team. With the Rockies, they send out four high quality hitters; Helton, Smith, Hawpe and Tulowitzki. All four get on base and hit for power, but not at the level of Pujols and Holliday. In a way, the Rockies pitchers will have an easier time. They need to get around two batters, and any of the Rockies starters are good enough to handle the rest of the lineup. Without facing Holliday, the Rockies posted a 2.25 ERA against the Cardinals in four games this year, the team going 4-0. The offense favors the Rockies.

Colorado does not play as well on the road, as so three games in St. Louis might make the difference. The offense just doesn’t hit as well out of the thin air and the big outfield. I suspect Carpenter and Wainwright will take full advantage of that in games 1 & 2, and one of them can try to do it again in game five if needed. I believe it will be a close series, but better front line pitching and home field wins out for St. Louis.

Phillies vs. Dodgers

This is one series that is tough to call due to the state of flux in the two starting staffs. The Phillies added Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez and both came on like gangbusters (although Lee slowed down lately). The Dodgers staff struggled with injuries, causing them to add Jon Garland and Vicente Padilla, both of whom improved ERAs compared to the time spent with their former teams. With Kershaw hurt and Billingsley pitching like the Verducci effect is catching up to him, the Phillies come into this series with a better starting staff. Hamels is pitching well again, Happ has time to recover from his injury and Lee and Martinez showed great control since joining the team.

Offensively, this series pits the Dodgers ability to get on base against the Phillies superior power. The Dodgers hold the best OBP in the National League, the Phillies the best slugging percentage. The Dodgers score runs by keeping the bases full of batters. The Phillies strike with big blows. This may be Philadelphia’s great advantage. The Phillies pitching staff, especially the starters likely to pitch in the series, walks few batters. Take away the Dodgers walks, and they’re going to need to hit a lot of singles to score runs. The Dodgers pitchers do a good job of limiting home runs, but the Phillies may only need to hit one mistake out of the park to make the difference in the game.

I like the Phillies power against the Dodgers ability to get on base in this series. Los Angeles will need to keep the games close so their superior bullpen might win out, but I favor the Phillies to go on to the NLCS.

Phillies vs. Cardinals

This should be an exciting series. The starting staffs for both teams are excellent, with the Cardinals better at the top of the rotation, the Phillies better at the back. The offenses are more evenly matched that it seems at first glance, since Busch Stadium depresses offense, while Citizen’s Bank Park helps offense.

The Phillies own two advantages, however. The Cardinals hit poorly against left-handed pitching, and with Hamels and Lee Philadelphia can throw two good ones against St. Louis. The other is depth of offense. Pujols and Holliday are as good if not better than anyone on the Phillies. Backing up Utley and Howard, however, are Victorino, Werth and Ibanez. The two through five slots in the Philadelphia lineup give the Cardinals starters little respite. The top talent on the Cardinals is close enough to the front line talent of the Phillies that the Phillies depth should win out.

Much thanks to David Pinto for his great insight!

That wraps up The Baseball Zealot’s week of special guests analyzing the end-of-year awards and postseason races. I hope you have enjoyed them.

I want to thank all of the good folks who have taken the time to write some fantastic articles for TBZ this week. They all have been really excellent. If you haven’t already, take some time to read the others:

Enjoy!

McCutchen Redeems Himself

Staff Photographer Neither closer has had all that much success this year, neither Matt Capps, nor Brad Lidge. Capps spit out a one run 9th inning lead, allowing back to back doubles, and then with two outs Shane Victorino lined a ball right at Andrew McCutchen, McCutchen froze, and the ball took off over his head, and gave the Phillies a one run lead. Now it was time for Brad Lidge to protect a one run lead. Hits by Luis Cruz & Brandon Moss, with a wild pitch in between, tied the game when Jayson Werth over ran the ball, and pinch runner Brian Bixler scored. That brought up the kid, Andrew McCutchen. Andrew talked with Lastings Milledge during the game, talking about what he’d do if he hit a walkoff home run, and told him he’d be like a basketball player taking the dunk to the hoop when he reached home plate. He thought he might get the bunt sign, but when he didn’t, he focused on the job at hand and looked for a ball to hit hard. And BANG it happened!

Which got me to thinking of managers putting their players into positions where they can achieve success. I remember a couple of nights ago where Jim Tracy didn’t panic, he told Adam Eaton to take three pitches with the bases loaded (he walked), trailing in the game, wanting Ryan Spilborghs to bat with the bases loaded, and BANG it happened!

Then there was the opposite, which happened in last night’s Texas/Yankee game. With nobody out in the bottom of the 9th New York trailed the Rangers 10-9 with runners on 1st & 2nd, facing Frank Francisco. Now we all know Swisher cannot bunt, I presume Girardi knows this as well, but he had him try, popout. And then BANG it happened! Linedrive up the middle by Melky Cabrera, caught by Elvis Andrus for a game ending DP.

I’m reminded of what Stacey King always says regarding Da Bulls, KYP, Know Your Personnel! Don’t have players do what they can’t!

Rockies & Roll

Ryan Spilborghs put an exclamation mark on last night’s Rockies come from behind victory over the Giants in 14 innings, with a walkoff grand slam! The teams were down to bare bones as evidenced by the fact that Colorado manager Jim Tracy told pitcher to take three strikes right down the middle for a strikeout, rather than risk hitting into a game ending doubleplay, he wanted to see Spilborghs hit with the bases loaded, Justin Miller issued a bases loaded walk to Eaton, then Miller was replaced by Merken Valdez, who let up the bags juiced jack.

The Rockies have played 51-22, 20-32 before that, and have closed to three games of the front running Dodgers, after once being 15 1/2 games out. Los Angeles is preparing to face Colorado in a three game series, so far the Dodgers are 10-2 versus the Rocks, 5-1 at both places, but this is a different Rockies ballclub, playing inspired baseball under Tracy, who replaced manager Clint Hurdle the end of May after a three game Dodger sweep at Coors Field.

Spilborghs certainly redeemed himself after grounding into an inning ending doubleplay in the 10th with the potential winning run on 3rd. The Giants had taken the lead on a Eugenio Velez triple in the top of the 14th, but it wasn’t to be, as it was Ryan’s day, as he sprinted around the bases to meet up with his waiting teammates at homeplate.

Good News for Desert Sox

viciedo It’s early, but it might be time. The 19 year old Cuban thirdbaseman Dayan Viciedo singled in his first at bat of the spring. The 5’11” 245 pound Viciedo signed a four year $10 million dollar deal over the winter with the White Sox. Although his contract is more than double that of fellow countryman SS Alexei Ramirez, he might be this year’s bargain basement baby. Dayan said, he felt relaxed, no pressure at all. With Joe Crede signing with the Minnesota Twins, thirdbase is wide open for Wilson Betemit, Josh Fields, & Dayan Viciedo, and Brent Morel & Jon Gilmore, waiting in the wings.

In fact the wide open positions have plenty of competition. For example secondbase will feature Chris Getz, Jayson Nix, Brent Lillibridge, or last year’s first round draft choice out of Georgia, Gordon Beckham.

And finally the rotation. Former AL Cy Young Award winner Bartolo Colon and Playoff & World Series hero Jose Contreras are ahead of schedule and look ready to start the season in the rotation when the team breaks camp, joining Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and John Danks. If anyone falters, Jeff Marquez, who came over from the Yankees in the Nick Swisher trade, and Aaron Poreda the big lefthander out of the University of San Francisco are looking to prove what they can do.

Saw in yesterday’s White Sox/Rockies box score where Eric Young, Jr. played secondbase for Colorado. The kid, just like his old man, can fly, and will steal alot of bases in the big leagues, no matter what position he ends up playing.