Recently, David Pinto wrote an article on Sporting News’ web site entitled Fewer HRs, what the trend means.
According to Pinto, the HR numbers in 2008 were the lowest since the expansion in 1993. Taking that fact, he draws the maybe-not-so-obvious conclusion of the value of the modern slugger:
As the supply of home runs drops, home run hitters become more valuable. As fewer long balls lead to lower scoring, the base stealing environment should change as well. A tight run environment leads managers to invest in one-run strategies like steals. As base stealers become more plentiful, they become less valuable to fantasy owners.
Are we headed to an era similar to the 70s when we had a balance of power and speed?