Pedro Feliz | The Baseball Zealot

Guest post: Rich Williams on what happened to the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

This post is penned by friend and die-hard Cardinals fan Rich Williams. When asked by us Cub fans over email what happened to St Louis this year, Rich wrote this very thoughtful and analytical piece on the Cardinals. What went right, what went wrong and the look to the future.

I asked his permission if I could re-post it here and he graciously yes. Thanks, Rich!

-tbz

After watching Halladay pitch a no-hitter in his first ever post-season appearance, Texas pound the Rays, and the Yankees continued Torment of the Twins, I think we can all agree that both STL and the Cubs (maybe a little more with the Cubs) have a longgggggggggggg way to go. My pleasure will become in watch Dusty make stupid pitching choices on the way to a 3-and-out.

So, I can’t let Alex’s questions go by without some insights. I have to admit, this is the most complex Cardinal season I have ever tried to dissect. I think there are a few problems I can immediately identify:

1. LOW OBP by leadoff batters caused overall run totals to sag. Felipe Lopez was not the answer offensively or defensively to Schumaker sagging to his career means in both areas. Ditto Aaron Miles, although his BA was inexplicably decent for a part time player.

2. Inconsistent performance by 3-4 hitters in RISP situations. I don’t believe there is such a thing as a clutch hitter (ala Bill James), so the only explanation I can offer is both were pressing and expanding their strike zones because ……

3. Very LOW OPS in 5/6/7 slots after Freese went down, Rasmus went down, Ludwick was hurt then was traded, Allen Craig could not hit MLB pitching, etc. Molina struggled offensively all year and finally broke down when Larue got his head kicked in by Cueto.

4. Lack of depth, period for third base (feliz????) both at bat and on the field.

5. Not getting Jake Westbrook enough innings after spending so much to get him

6. Bad chemistry in the club house with enough blame to go around. Felipe became the scapegoat, but the problems between the players and Tony eventually extended to Albert, Holliday and Carpenter. Losing Ludwick was a major contributor to negative clubhouse atmosphere just when they needed it most.

7. A curious inability to beat tail-ender teams like the Cubs while piling up an impressive record against above-.500 and contending teams.

8. Below average defensive performance compared to previous years in general, particularly against lesser teams.

Summary:

The Cardinals season got decided in the six weeks following the sweep of the Reds immediately after the All-Star Break. All the problems above seemed to descend in a vengeance. Problems in finding a 4th and 5th starter (Lohse and Suppan) aggravated these issues by consistently putting a team behind 4-5 runs early when they could not score. This in turn burned down what had been one of the most effective bullpens in the NL culminating the outrageous game in Denver where the Rockies came back in the bottom of the 9th trailing 9-3 to win 12-9 on a walk-off 3-run homer. September found them so far behind and still struggling to score runs that even the Cincy mini-collapse only narrowed the ending gap to 5 games. Getting swept by Cubs (who finished 11 games in back of them) in STL was pretty much the end of the line.

2011 Needs:

1. A lead-off hitter that improves on these stats:

BA (rank) … OBP (rank) … SLG (rank)

245 (12th) … .309 (13th) … .350 (13th)

2. An everyday 2nd baseman with league average OPS at least. (Trade)

3. An everyday third basement with league average OPS at least. (Freese, Descalso, Greene are likely contenders)

4. Overall depth at infield positions as opposed to outfield positions. This is where a lot of younger players from Memphis who came on late will contend (Greene, Descalso).

5. An everyday right fielder with minimum league average OPS, if not a little more.

6. Sign Pujols to an extension.

7. Resign Westbrook.

NB: Brendan Ryan remains an way above league average fielding shortstop that the pitching staff trusts and insists is in the game most of the time. His offense can remain a semi-black hole as long as his defense comes back in 2011 instead of his 2010 where he got injured early. The Skip Schumacker experiment at 2b is over and he will either return to outfield duty of get traded as a throw-in somewhere.

Good things in 2010:

1. Young players making strides: Jaime Garcia, John Jay, Tyler Greene, Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan.

2. Starting pitching and bullpen.

3. Pythagorean for RS/RA projected a better record (92 wins) even with problems above. See defensive issues, problems against lesser teams, consistency in run scoring.

4. 86 win season matching 2006 club. Reds simply beat them despite playing sub-.500 ball against winning teams by cleaning up on tail-enders (but only by 5 games=91 wins). Reds outscored Cardinals gave up far fewer runs and dominated the heads up series 12-6.

Where to improve:

Offense:

Improve on these 2010 numbers across the board:

RUNS 736 14th Overall

ON BASE PERCENTAGE .332 13th Overall

SLUGGING PCT .402 16th Overall

Pitching:

Improve on following 2010 numbers

QUALITY STARTS 94 6th Overall (Find 4th and 5th starters who are healthy and go six innings)

WHIP

1.30 10th Overall (Ditto)

BAA

.256 16th Overall (Ditto)

Cardinals are way ahead of the Cubs in fielding a contending team, but need to fill some obvious gaps to stay competitive. The Reds will likely come down to earth in terms of RS/RA but will look to improve as well. Offseason will be worth watching for both. Cubs need to clear deadweight payroll, Cardinals will try to deal with limited payroll flexibility given they have locked in Holliday, Lohse and Carpenter and look to lock in Albert.

And what will Tony Larussa do?

Yankees Turn to Sabathia on 3 Days Rest

85125458JM010_BALTIMORE_ORI C.C. Sabathia was matched up against fellow Cleveland Indians starter Cliff Lee in the opener of the Series. Lee outpitched C.C. in that game, but only Sabathia was ready to go on three days rest, Cliff would need one more day before he could go. So on Sunday night Joe Blanton would answer the bell for the Phillies versus big C.C.

Derek Jeter got the Yankees going in the 1st with a leadoff single, went to 3rd on a Johnny Damon double, and Derek would score on a Mark Teixeira groundout, and then Damon would be plated on a Jorge Posada sacrifice fly, after Alex Rodriguez was drilled by a pitch, Yanks up 2-0 with the Phils coming to bat. Back to back first inning doubles by Shane Victorino & Chase Utley would cut it to a one run game, 2-1 after one.

BIG Ryan Howard got a leadoff single in the bottom of the 4th, stole 2nd, and scored on a Pedro Feliz base knock to knot the game at two. It was time for New York to get to work in the top of the fifth, Nick Swisher started it with a base on balls, went to 2nd on a Melky Cabrera single, and then C.C. Sabathia struckout trying to bunt the runners up. With one out Derek Jeter plated Swisher with a single, then Cabrera scored on a base hit off the bat of Damon, and the Yanks again had a two run lead, 4-2.

The Phillies got their first two guys on in the bottom of the 5th as Jimmy Rollins singled & Shane Victorino walked, bringing up Chase Utley (who had homered twice in game one off C.C.), BIG Ryan Howard, and Jayson Werth, the meat of the order. Two popouts & a strikeout later, and the threat was over. Neither starting pitcher allowed a run in the 6th, Ben Francisco batted for Blanton, ending his night.

Chan Ho Park pitched a scoreless 7th. When Sabathia delivered his 98th pitch of the night in the 7th it struck me, while thinking about this superhuman’s accomplishments, pitchers routinely went the distance in the olden days, often times throwing 200 pitches in a game, sometimes working on two days rest. Still it was great to see this workhorse, C.C., going about his job, mowing down the top of the Phillies order, one, two… But then Utley chased Sabathia from the game with his third home run of the Series off C.C. (so much for platooning), once again it was a one run ballgame, all six Philadelphia home runs being solo shots. Damaso Marte was brought on to get BIG Ryan Howard to popup to end the inning, 4-3 NY.

There were two on & one out in the top of the 8th, Nick Swisher could’ve iced it, but he took strike three down the middle, shaking his head, rather than lighting up reliever Ryan Madson. Joe Girardi didn’t want to have Mariano Rivera pitch more than one inning, thus Joba Chamberlain was called on to face the hot hitting Jayson Werth (down on strikes), Raul Ibanez (K’s him on heat), & Pedro Feliz took the kid over the wall for a game tying homer. Oh brother, wasn’t supposed to happen that way if you’re a Yankees fan, what a ballgame, what a Series! A wicked breaking ball to Carlos Ruiz, and Joba’s struckout the side, but now it’s all tied at four, going into the 9th.

I know this from experience, sometimes you try to save your closer for tomorrow, and then there is no tomorrow. Chamberlain looked overpowering, but Rivera is overpowering. Charlie Manuel called on his closer Brad Lidge to work a tie ballgame in the top of the 9th, getting the first two before Damon singled to left, stole 2nd & went around Feliz, and went all the way to 3rd (the Phillies had a shift on for Teixeira), he’s credited with 2 SBs on that one play. Lidge hits Teixeira, bringing up ARod (1 for 13 in the Series). Alex hits a double off the leftfield wall, big moments for big players. With the Yankees up, Mo starts seriously loosening up to try to close it out with the lead. A couple of insurance runs score when Posada delivers a single into leftcenter, continuing on to 2nd, where he is tagged out easily, 7-4 Yanks.

Not that it matters, but Rivera faces pinch hitter Matt Stairs and then the top of the order. A groundout, a popout, & a groundout, all three to firstbase, and it’s over. The Bronx Bombers now have a three games to one Series lead, with one ballgame in Philadelphia before heading back to New York (if necessary). Philadelphia needs to win three straight, if not impossible, close to it. Game five features Cliff Lee versus nasty A.J. Burnett on three days rest. Joba Chamberlain was credited with the win in this one, but we all know it was C.C. Sabathia on three days, getting the job done.

Phor What it’s Werth, Phillies Return to World Series

werth After Andre Ethier hit a first inning home run off Cole Hamels in the 1st inning, the Phillies were given notice, LA was here to play. But just like a heavyweight fighter, going toe to toe Jayson Werth blasted a three run opposite field monster blast in the first inning off Vicente Padilla, replying to the challenge, by saying, we’re ready, bring it on.

In the 2nd James Loney leading off knocked one over the rightfield wall to bring it to a one run ballgame. Before Philadelphia batted in the bottom of the frame, Craig Sager commented how pitching coach Rick Honeycutt instructed Padilla to stay on top of his pitches, the first batter for the Phighting Phils Pedro Feliz hit one out to right, extending it back to a 2 run lead.

The Phillies pushed their lead to 6-3 in the bottom of the 4th scoring two runs. A leadoff single to left by Werth, followed by a run scoring double to right by Raul Ibanez, and that was all for Padilla. Ramon Troncoso was brought in to pitch for the Dodgers, getting Feliz to ground to 3rd, Ibanez stays at 2nd, Carlos Ruiz walks, and Hamels sacrifices both runners up on a 3-2 bunt. Troncoso then hits JRoll & Shane Victorino with pitches, the 2nd one with the bases loaded, driving in a run.

Cole Hamels was getting cold, not pitching for 27 minutes, although two runs were added to the lead. Pinch hitter Orlando Hudson ripped a one out homer off Hamels inside the leftfield foul pole to cut it to a 6-4 game in the top of the 5th, and when Rafael Furcal doubled to left, that was all for Cole, no win for him tonite in the clinching game. Ronnie Belliard worked reliever J.A. Happ for a walk, then retired Ethier, and that was all for Happ, as Chad Durbin was called on to face Manny Ramirez. Durbin jammed Manny, Ramirez hit a soft comebacker, and the Phillies were out of the jam, three pitchers worked the 5th, Charlie Manuel threw the book out the window, and took control of the ballgame. I’ve given the West Virginian stuff, but he showed his stuff.

In the bottom of the 6th off Clayton Kershaw, Jimmy Rollins was hit by a pitch for the second consecutive at bat, and Victorino took the youngster deep for a two run blast, 8-3 after six. Hong-Chih Kuo was brought on to pitch the 7th, Werth caught up with a low fastball and drove it over the wall for his 2nd homer of the ballgame, 9-3 Phils.

LA had some fight left, Belliard & Ethier opened with 8th inning base knocks, off Chan Ho Park. Into the mix came Ryan Madson to face Manny, Ramirez walked, Matt Kemp played peggy move up, moving everybody up one with a single. Pitching coach Rich Dubee came out to settle down Madson, as Loney stepped in. Whatever Dubee said seemed to work as Ryan got Loney on a popout, struckout Russell Martin, and got Casey Blake to ground into a force play short to second, with Jim Thome waiting to bat in the ondeck circle. Question, Joe Torre, why not pinch hit Thome for Martin? If Thome gets one, it’s a 9-8 game, pressure on, anything can happen. Instead 9-4 into the bottom of the eighth.

Ronald Belisario works the bottom of the 8th, getting the 1st two hitters before JRoll singles & Victorino doubles off a Phan’s hand, reaching over the rail in right, the umpires didn’t allow Rollins to score, although they could have, Charlie Manuel thought Jimmy should’ve been allowed to score, came out to discuss it, Chip Caray & the Chipettes thought Charlie was arguing the non-homer call, they need to get their heads into the game. Phillies up 10-4, three outs to go, and then no more TBS, I’m sure that’s what fans across the country were thinking.

Closer Brad Lidge works a perfect 9th, looks sharp, Ryan Howard is the NLCS MVP, the Phillies are going back to the World Series, trying to repeat, this Philadelphia Phillies team looks like a tight group, out there having fun, playing a little baseball.