mark mcgwire | The Baseball Zealot

Will Big Mac see Cooperstown in 2011?

When a St Louis Cardinal blog does one of those “Will Mark McGwire get into the Hall of Fame?” polls, I just yawn. There’s no point in relying on the data. But when an AL team blog like the Blue Jays’ Blue Bird Banter does one, I pay a little more attention.

If you trust the Jays’ fans intuition, Big Mac has a long row to hoe. At this writing, the Nos have it by a 62% to 37% margin. And despite how I feel about the matter, I think they’re right. The bad publicity and quite honestly the bad choices by McGwire have put him where he’s at and 2011 won’t be a HOF year for him.

My prediction? McGwire will eventually get into Cooperstown but it won’t be for a few years (assuming he maintains his vote minimum). If not, the veterans committee (if it still exists then… that’s another story) will shoo him in when the time comes.

Hat Trick for Big Mac

Mark McGwire’s wife bore him triplets today.

The jokes have already started within my circle… even from Cardinals fans (shame). But I won’t go there.

I’ll just wish Mark a happy second fatherhood and hope he makes sure to get them into Little League as soon as possible. Who knows they could turn out like Eri Yoshida (the Knuckle Princess) and play professionally.

KO on the Hall vote

The Hall of Fame musings of MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann make for an interesting read whether or not you agree with his politics.

I can agree for the most part with his conclusions though I think he comes off a little sanctimonious when it comes to McGwire:

Hall of Fame? For what? For pretending to Congress that nothing happened before that steroid hearing? Fine. You got your wish. Nothing happened. Your lifetime numbers are 0-0-.000. And by the way, why is it ok for him to just waltz back in as batting coach of the Cardinals? Would we let Bonds come back in? This is unacceptable, and it gives credence to the very disturbing claim that race is at play when it comes to the punishment of steroid cheats. Mark McGwire is a steroid cheater.

Otherwise, I can’t argue too much with someone who would be willing to put Dawson AND Lee Smith in had he a vote.

Wasted power?

Playing around with Baseball Reference’s Play Index today, I decided to see which hitters were hitting the long ball but not driving in so many runs. Here are the five batters from the first half of 2009 with the lowest rbis totals with at least 15 homeruns.

Batter RBI HR

    1 Chris Davis        33 15  
    2 Troy Tulowitzki    37 16  
    3 Jay Bruce          41 18  
    4 Hank Blalock       42 19  
    5 Curtis Granderson  43 18

Here is the full list with all stats.

Granderson gets a bye here since he primarily leads off but the others need a better excuse.

No surprise here. We find batters with low batting averages (Bruce-.207) or worse a low batting average AND a high strikeout rate (Davis- 114 Ks and a .202 BA).

As for Tulowitzki, his .164 average probably accounts for his low rbi total.

Just for kicks, if I dial the homerun requirement down to 10, here are the results:

Batter RBI HR

    1 Josh Willingham    26 12  
    2 Ken Griffey        26 10  
    3 A.J. Pierzynski    27 10  
    4 Mike Jacobs        30 12  
    5 Scott Hairston     31 11

Again, the full list is here.

Some surprises here. I wouldn’t have expected to see Josh Williamham (.304) on this list though playing for the Nats could account for this. Griffey and Jacobs both are having sub-par years in their other stat categories (ok, maybe sub-par is the wrong term to use… Jacobs is having about the year we would expect).

AJ is hitting .299 playing for relatively offensively-minded team. He is hitting .226 with RISP. Not good but at the same time but four of his 10 homers have come in this situation. Strange.

If you’re wondering, Alfonso Soriano comes up #8 on this list with 33 rbis on 14 homers.

And to add some historical perspective, I cranked up some all time Wasted Power numbers. This time I took the homerun requirement up to 30. So here is the top ten list of the lowest amount of rbis for any batter who hit 30 or more homeruns:

Batter RBI HR

    1 Rob Deer           64 32 1992   
    2 Felix Mantilla     64 30 1964   
    3 Hanley Ramirez     67 33 2008   
    4 Brad Wilkerson     67 32 2004   
    5 Chris Young        68 32 2007   
    6 Brook Jacoby       69 32 1987   
    7 Alfonso Soriano    70 33 2007   
    8 Jose Valentin      70 30 2004   
    9 Rocky Colavito     72 30 1966   
   10 Mark McGwire       73 32 2000

Full list here

Like Granderson, last year’s Hanley Ramirez and 2007’s Alfonso Soriano can be excused because their managers deemed them fit to lead off instead of using their power in a more useful spot.

Otherwise, you find hitters I would expect. Rob Deer. Mark McGwire in his waning days. Jose Valentin who loved to swing. Bad Brad Wilkerson who struck out 152 times in 2004. Oh yeah, there’s Chris Young again.

I’ll probably revisit this topic at the end of season and see how the numbers how they’ve changed. By the way, if you haven’t tried out Baseball Reference’s Play Index and you like goofing around with baseball stats, give it a try. It does cost a little but it’s worth a bit in my mind.

HOF ’09: We’re Done!

Well, with Teddy Ballgame’s write-up on Greg Vaughn earlier today, we’ve concluded HOF ’09, our series of profiles of this year’s candidates for the Hall of Fame. It’s been fun and I think we’ve even learned a bit along the way.

As for me, it was an interesting group of players to profile for a couple reasons. A big one was that most of these players were big stars while I was a teenager and young adult when I was forming my serious interest in baseball. Dave Parker, Jim Rice, Tim Raines, Andre Dawson… I have fond memories. Not to mention that some of these players played in the era when the Chicago Cubs finally became a post season threat (I can still remember the ’84 series against the Padres… ugh).

Also, these players came from a time when baseball had more of a balance of power, speed, and pitching. Appropriately enough, that is reflected in the 2009 Hall of Fame ballot. With the speed of Henderson and Raines, the power of McGwire and Rice and the pitching of David Cone, Bert Blyleven and Tommy John, this class is well represented.

Who will get elected? Well, we put our opinions down who we think SHOULD get the call but as to who WILL get elected is another matter. The BBWAA has been rather stingy lately and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s very possible that just one (Rickey Henderson??) will get elected and others will have to wait.

Time is running out for some, though. The midnight hour is chiming for Jim Rice as it’s his last ballot. There are some (myself included) who feel that his career and contribution is worthy of the Hall.

We’ll find out tomorrow and the chips will fall where they may. No doubt, many bloggers and pundits will be unhappy no matter how it goes. I’ll predict at least one writer will have his credentials questioned and will be asked to step down from the BBWAA. Unfortunately, THAT is the safest prediction I make right now.

All that said, here are the opinions we’ve made in the last month. Links go to our profiles on the players.

Thanks for reading!

	Hall of Fame	Hall of Very Good	Why is he even on the Ballot?
Harold Baines
Jay Bell
Bert Blyleven
David Cone
*Andre Dawson*
Ron Gant
Mark Grace
Rickey Henderson
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Jesse Orosco
Dave Parker
Dan Plesac
Tim Raines
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Greg Vaughn
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Teddy Ballgame and DonS for their help with his project.

Also, a lot of research went in to this. I’d like to give props to the websites that were helpful.

Baseball Reference: I can’t say enough about this web site. If there are baseball fans out there who haven’t seen this site and what it can do, you need to check it out.

Baseball Page: Very helpful for bios and such.

Baseball Musings’ Day by Day Database: Good for finding stats between established periods of time (and lots of other stuff).

Baseball Almanac: another good bio site. Good for the quotes too :)

HOF ’09: Mark McGwire

“Any time a guy that big steps up to the plate – they’re very few and far between, thank God – it’s kind of hard not to notice him standing there. The sun just disappears for a while.”

Kevin Brown on Mark McGwire

Oh what to do with Mark McGwire and the Hall of Fame! He was denied entry the past two years, some say because of allegations of use of performance enhancers, others might just just say because of his one-sided talent. But just how one-sided was it? And if so, does it really matter?

Let’s get the big stats out of the way. Sixteen seasons, 583 homeruns, 1414 rbis, 1167 runs… and six triples.

His 1596 strikeouts was accompanied by 1317 walks. Not a bad ratio by any means… he knew how to take a walk or maybe more accurately, the opposing pitchers knew when to pitch around him.

McGwire played for the Oakland Athletics from 1986-1997 when for most of the time, he was paired up with Jose Canseco to form the famed “Bash Brothers”. Ironically, if you look at the Similar Batters list in Baseball Reference, Canseco heads the list.

When firstbasemen get old, they tend to head to the AL. Not McGwire… he did it in reverse. In 1997 at the age of 33, he was traded to the St Louis Cardinals for three players. Now in this era of free agency and with most players heading toward this time in their career, most players are considering this as a career move but I honestly think Mark McGwire loved playing in St Louis.

At the time, the year of 1998 did much for baseball. Living in downstate Illinois put me smack dab in the middle of the two men who made it so exciting, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa. McGwire of course, broke the home record that year with his 70 homeruns but Sosa won the MVP award.

In retrospect, many feel it is tainted because of allegations of use of performance enhancing drugs. He didn’t help his cause when he avoided the question in 2005 at a congressional hearing.

Why Mark McGwire will make the Hall of Fame

There’s no question in my mind that if you drop the PED issue, McGwire would make the Hall. There are people who will tell you differently but I think their judgement is still being clouded. Look at his qualifications:

Four time home run champ
12-time All-Star
8th all-time in homeruns (583)
9th all-time slugging (.588)
all-time leader in at-bats per home run (10.6)

McGwire was the best at what he did for his era. Hitting homeruns.

Also, the writers have had two years to settle down about the PED thing. By now, they will have had a chance to look at what he did for baseball.

Why Mark McGwire will NOT make the Hall of Fame

1. Timing. Some writers have not forgotten about the andro or the PED allegations. My honest opinion is that if the Mitchell Report had never come out, McGwire would have a plaque in the Hall right now.

2. Some writers do believe that McGwire is a one-talent hitter and/or believe that his one talent (slugging) wasn’t enough to compensate for his weaknesses. Check out The Hardball Times’ more objective look at McGwire.

3. Demonization. Ok, that’s a strong word but once a train starts leaving a station, everybody wants to jump onboard.

When it comes down to it, I would vote for McGwire and I think the writers will eventually. Maybe not this year or the next.

But eventually.

	Hall of Fame
	Hall of Very Good
	Why is he even on the Ballot?

While we wait for January 12 ballot results, The Baseball Zealot will be profiling those players who are on the 2009 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Read the rest the of the profiles.

HOF ’09: Profiling the Candidates

This winter, The Baseball Zealot will be doing profiles of the Hall of Fame candidates for 2009. In addition, we’ll give our opinion on their inclusion in the Hall. This post will serve as the entry point for the HOF ’09 series.

Here is the link to all the profiles written to date.

The results will be announced on January 12th, 2009. With any luck, we’ll get them all in before then.

Hall of Fame voting

Let’s hear it for Jay Buhner. He got one vote. Buhner never expected to be on the ballot let alone get any votes. He certainly had the right perspective on the whole matter:

“I didn’t even know I was on the ballot until someone sent it to me on an e-mail two weeks ago,” he said. “Truthfully, it’s flattering to be even mentioned with the names on there, for God’s sakes.”

The HOF voting can be found here.

Ripken’s 98.53% was the third highest in history and highest by position player. A lot has been made of this but I think the voting percentage issue has been overblown by the media.

Tony Gwynn wasn’t far behind with 97.6%. I’ve always felt Tony belonged but never saw him on the same level as Ripken. Then Teddy Ballgame pointed out to me that among those with 3000 hits, Gwynn has the 4th highest batting average. I have to admire the combination of longevity and statistical excellence.

Of course, Mark McGwire didn’t make it. I didn’t think he would. There are still those detractors out there who insist that despite the fact he was 17 homeruns shy of 600 and played on 12 All-Star teams, they voted purely on his stats. I call shenanigans. If you let the cloud of steroids affect your vote, just admit it.

Mac’s 23.5% will keep him on the ballot. The only other first-timer who will stay on will be Harold Baines who snuck by with 5.3.% of the vote.

Goose Gossage didn’t make it but I believe his 71.2% showing will bode well for a 2008 performance. It was a crowded field this year and his good showing now may pave the way for the Hall for the Goose in 08.

One more thing. All this talk about McGwire and alleged (let’s not forget nothing has been proved… yet) steroid use hurting his chances… who were the two jokers who voted for Ken Caminiti, a known, admitted user of steroids which more than likely contributed to his death?