Tag: Chris Carpenter

Guest post: Rich Williams on what happened to the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals

This post is penned by friend and die-hard Cardinals fan Rich Williams.  When asked by us Cub fans over email what happened to St Louis this year, Rich wrote this very thoughtful and analytical piece on the Cardinals.  What went right, what went wrong and the look to the future. 

I asked his permission if I could re-post it here and he graciously yes.  Thanks, Rich!

-tbz

 

After watching Halladay pitch a no-hitter in his first ever post-season appearance, Texas pound the Rays, and the Yankees continued Torment of the Twins, I think we can all agree that both STL and the Cubs (maybe a little more with the Cubs) have a longgggggggggggg way to go.   My pleasure will become in watch Dusty make stupid pitching choices on the way to a 3-and-out.

So, I can’t let Alex’s questions go by without some insights. I have to admit, this is the most complex Cardinal season I have ever tried to dissect.  I think there are a few problems I can immediately identify:

1. LOW OBP by leadoff batters caused overall run totals to sag.  Felipe Lopez was not the answer offensively or defensively to Schumaker sagging to his career means in both areas. Ditto Aaron Miles, although his BA was inexplicably decent for a part time player.

2. Inconsistent performance by 3-4 hitters in RISP situations.  I don’t believe there is such a thing as a clutch hitter (ala Bill James), so the only explanation I can offer is both were pressing and expanding their strike zones because ……

3. Very LOW OPS in 5/6/7 slots after Freese went down, Rasmus went down, Ludwick was hurt then was traded, Allen Craig could not hit MLB pitching, etc.  Molina struggled offensively all year and finally broke down when Larue got his head kicked in by Cueto.

4. Lack of depth, period for third base (feliz????) both at bat and on the field.

5. Not getting Jake Westbrook enough innings after spending so much to get him

6. Bad chemistry in the club house with enough blame to go around.  Felipe became the scapegoat, but the problems between the players and Tony eventually extended to Albert, Holliday and Carpenter.  Losing Ludwick was a major contributor to negative clubhouse atmosphere just when they needed it most.

7. A curious inability to beat tail-ender teams like the Cubs while piling up an impressive record against above-.500 and contending teams.

8. Below average defensive performance compared to previous years in general, particularly against lesser teams.

 

Summary:

The Cardinals season got decided in the six weeks following the sweep of the Reds immediately after the All-Star Break.  All the problems above seemed to descend in a vengeance. Problems in finding a 4th and 5th starter (Lohse and Suppan) aggravated these issues by consistently putting a team behind 4-5 runs early when they could not score.   This in turn burned down what had been one of the most effective bullpens in the NL culminating the outrageous game in Denver where the Rockies came back in the bottom of the 9th trailing 9-3 to win 12-9 on a walk-off 3-run homer.   September found them so far behind and still struggling to score runs that even the Cincy mini-collapse only narrowed the ending gap to 5 games. Getting swept by Cubs (who finished 11 games in back of them) in STL was pretty much the end of the line.

 

2011 Needs:

1. A lead-off hitter that improves on these stats:

BA (rank) … OBP (rank) … SLG (rank)

245 (12th) … .309 (13th) … .350 (13th)

2. An everyday 2nd baseman with league average OPS at least.  (Trade)

3. An everyday third basement with league average OPS at least. (Freese, Descalso, Greene are likely contenders)

4. Overall depth at infield positions as opposed to outfield positions. This is where a lot of younger players from Memphis who came on late will contend (Greene, Descalso).

5. An everyday right fielder with minimum league average OPS, if not a little more.

6. Sign Pujols to an extension.

7. Resign Westbrook.

NB: Brendan Ryan remains an way above league average fielding shortstop that the pitching staff trusts and insists is in the game most of the time. His offense can remain a semi-black hole as long as his defense comes back in 2011 instead of his 2010 where he got injured early.  The Skip Schumacker experiment at 2b is over and he will either return to outfield duty of get traded as a throw-in somewhere.

Good things in 2010:

1. Young players making strides: Jaime Garcia, John Jay, Tyler Greene, Colby Rasmus, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan.

2. Starting pitching and bullpen.

3. Pythagorean for RS/RA projected a better record (92 wins) even with problems above. See defensive issues, problems against lesser teams, consistency in run scoring.

4. 86 win season matching 2006 club.  Reds simply beat them despite playing sub-.500 ball against winning teams by cleaning up on tail-enders (but only by 5 games=91 wins). Reds outscored Cardinals gave up far fewer runs and dominated the heads up series 12-6.

Where to improve:

Offense:

Improve on these 2010 numbers across the board:

RUNS 736  14th Overall

ON BASE PERCENTAGE .332  13th Overall

SLUGGING PCT  .402  16th Overall

Pitching:

Improve on following 2010 numbers

QUALITY STARTS 94  6th  Overall   (Find 4th and 5th starters who are healthy and go six innings)

WHIP

1.30 10th Overall  (Ditto)

BAA

.256  16th Overall (Ditto)

Cardinals are way ahead of the Cubs in fielding a contending team, but need to fill some obvious gaps to stay competitive.  The Reds will likely come down to earth in terms of RS/RA but will look to improve as well.  Offseason will be worth watching for both.  Cubs need to clear deadweight payroll, Cardinals will try to deal with limited payroll flexibility given they have locked in Holliday, Lohse and Carpenter and look to lock in Albert.

And what will Tony Larussa do?  

10/1/09 Linescore of the Day: Chris Carpenter

chris_carpenter_st_louis_cardinalsChris Carpenter did his best Babe Ruth imitation, doing it with the bat and doing it with his arm.  He hit a grand slam on his first career home run in the 2nd inning, then cracked a two run double in his next at bat, while throwing five donuts at the Red Legs.  His five shutout innings secured the NL ERA title.

Chris Carpenter 2 for 3, 1 2B, 1 HR (GS), 6 RBIs, 1 run

Chris Carpenter 5 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO (W, 17-4)

Guest Blogger: Shawn Lee analyzes the Cy Young candidates

Each day this week, The Baseball Zealot will be featuring special guest bloggers who will be giving their predictions on the 2009 MLB end-of year-awards and postseason matchups.  In the second installment of this series, Shawn Lee will look at the Cy Young candidates. 

shawn Shawn Lee is a local guy, living here in Champaign-Urbana.  Not only is he the webmaster for our local vintage base ball team, the Vermilion Voles, he’s been known to pick up a willow and swing at the onion too.  When he plays for the Voles, he’s known as General Lee, thank you. 

Lee doesn’t always live in the 19th century though.  He’s a big fan of current Major League Baseball, too favoring the New York Yankees. 

 

2009 Cy Young Predictions

 

This year’s chase for the Cy Young Award in both leagues is deserving of interest for two main reasons.  First, although there are plenty of deserving candidates, neither league has a clear cut front runner.  I wish the task of predicting the winners were made easy for me. Instead, I’ll need to stick out my neck just a bit and make my best guess.

The second reason this season is a bit different is that there are several teams who have multiple legitimate contenders.  For this reason in particular, my approach in making my prediction is going to be to pick the best pitcher from each team first.  Then from all 30 pitchers, I’ll make my AL and NL predictions.  Please note that my intention here is not to determine who should win the award based on my personal analysis.  My goal is to predict who the folks with the voting power are going to choose.

American League

 

Baltimore:  Brad Bergesen.  Not much to choose from here.  It would have easily been George Sherrill if he wasn’t traded to the Dodgers.

Boston:  Jon Lester edges Josh Beckett.

NY Yankees:  CC Sabathia with Mariano Rivera a close second.  Too bad Phil Hughes had some pretty rough outings as a starter to begin the year.  His numbers have been breathtaking since becoming a reliever in June.

Tampa Bay:  Matt Garza.  Rays pitchers have been very disappointing compared to last year.

Toronto:  Roy Halladay.  Hittable as of late, but still no contest here.

ChiSox:  Mark Buerhle edges Gavin Floyd.

Cleveland:  Cliff Lee.  Nothing else to choose from.  Forget Pavano.

Detroit:  Justin Verlander.

Kansas City:  Zack Greinke.  Easy choice.

Minnesota:  Scott Baker, only because Joe Nathan is having a down year, his ERA "soaring" to 2.28.

LA Angels:  Jered Weaver.

Oakland:  Andrew Bailey.  Great season.  Glad to see him make the All Star team.  Meet your AL ROY.

Seattle:  Felix Hernandez.  He is beginning to fulfill the lofty expectations set for him when he debuted for the Mariners as a 19-year old.

Texas:  Scott Feldman.

 

Now from this pool of pitchers, who is the best in the league?  Unfortunately, that’s not the question.  The question is who will win the Cy Young award.  The voters love looking at win totals, so that automatically puts Sabathia and Verlander at the top of the list especially since they are headed for the postseason.  But Verlander’s numbers are better than Sabathia plus his remaining opponents (Chicago, Minnesota) are not quite as tough as Sabathia’s (Angels, Red Sox).  The other true contenders are Halladay, Hernandez, and Greinke.  The voters also seem to have a fondness for stud pitchers who pitch for lousy teams.  Remember in May when the Royals were in first place and Greinke was 6-0 with an ERA of 0.40?  He has only won seven games since then.  That’s not going to be good enough for the W-loving voters despite the fact that he leads the AL in ERA and WHIP and second in strikeouts.  The only chance Greinke has is if he can win at least 15 games.  Otherwise, I think Verlander will get the nod.

National League

 

Atlanta:  Javier Vazquez.  Having as good a season as anyone else, but lack of run support is keeping his win total down.

Florida:  Josh Johnson.

NY Mets:  Johan Santana.  A poor year by Johan’s standards.

Philadelphia:  J.A. Happ throughout the season has been their best pitcher.  Midseason pickup Cliff Lee and a rejuvenated Cole Hamels are pitching better than Happ right now.

Washington:  John Lannan.

Chicago Cubs:  Ted Lilly.

Cincinnati:  Francisco Cordero.  33/35 in save opportunities, only 2 home runs given up all year.

Houston:  Wandy Rodriguez.

Milwaukee:  Yovani Gallardo.  A future Cy Young winner once he gets his walks down.

Pittsburgh:  Ross Ohlendorf.  Not much to choose from on this team.

St. Louis:  Chris Carpenter, for now.  A really tough pick here, since Wainwright has been equally impressive and helped carry the team while Carpenter was on the shelf early in the season.  Wainwright will surely garner many Cy Young votes, especially if he can make it to 20 wins.  Carpenter has only allowed 2 stolen bases all year.  A lot of credit goes to Yadier Molina for that, but for a right-handed pitcher, that is really impressive.  But something I’m sure will not be noticed by the voters.

Arizona:  Dan Haren in a landslide.

Colorado:  Ubaldo Jimenez.  Jason Marquis has cooled off in the second half.

LA Dodgers:  Clayton Kershaw.  Unquestionably this is the deepest pitching staff in MLB.  The fact that team wins leader, Chad Billingsley, has twelve wins is testament to that.

San Diego:  Heath Bell.  The starters have been that bad.

San Francisco:  Tim Lincecum in another good team race.  Matt Cain is the staff ace on any other team in the league, but Lincecum’s K/BB ratio and quality starts percentage are just too impressive.

 

There are plenty of great pitchers in the NL.  It is hard to believe most of the contenders won’t even come close to 20 wins.  Wainwright has the best chance.  He needs to win 3 of his remaining 4-5 starts.  If he can do it, he immediately becomes the favorite.   If not, it comes down to Carpenter, Haren, and Lincecum.  Carpenter’s league leading ERA and stellar W/L ratio makes the Cy Young his to lose.  Like Greinke, both Haren and Lincecum currently have 13 wins.  They will need at least 15 to have any chance at all.

Thanks, Shawn for your excellent input.  Keep checking in for more great analysis throughout the week.  Here’s the link to our 2009 End-of-Year Predictions by our guest bloggers.